Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Nov 3 E-mini S&P 500 Futures: Keep It Simple Stupid Series



The train that keeps on giving

Today’s session was a textbook bull train continuation day from yesterday’s bullish engulfing. It was a relatively simple and easy day as it provided the standard bull train 1HR 20EMA re-entry in the morning at 8AM before the day session opened. It provided the long entry of risking 3 points for 10 setup and it evolved into hitting the last immediate target at 2107. The day session was almost a repeat of yesterday’s bull train strategy where we bought almost every dip to the 5minute 8EMA and 20EMA for scalping purposes. In the afternoon, we shorted at 2109 with a risk of 3 points for 10 setup based on our executed 80% win rate hourly extreme overbought signal and it worked out well just like yesterday’s end of the day short.


Clarification for our intraday ES trades play-by-play commentary:
We use two futures trading accounts; one employs the strategy of trading the hourly chart setups such as risking 3 points for 10 or risking 5-10 for 15-25 types of trades. (eg. LONG at 2093 before the day session opened and sold at 2100 and 2105). The other one mainly focuses on scalping quick 3-6 points using an on trend strategy. 

What’s next?
Daily closed at 2102.50, this is the 9th consecutive session above the daily 200SMA. It was a standard bullish continuation candle similar to October 23.

All of the immediate targets have been fulfilled 2089.50, 2100 and 2107.
The intermediate targets of 2120 and 2134 are now turned into immediate targets as long as the bull train remains above the hourly 50SMA which is currently at 2088.

This means that the support has been upgraded from 2065 to a trending moving average support. The reason is because the market has major resistance confluences here at 2110 so there’s no failure allowed by bulls here.  
For short-term bears: breaks below 2088, then immediate targets are 2075, 2064, 2055 and 2050.

Plan for tomorrow: Could be the third consecutive up day, which means need to be extra cautious of size management due to the bull train extension. No need to get greedy now. 

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Our Swing Position
-Added 10% IWM Dec ITM Calls in the morning
-Sold 10% IWM Dec ITM calls from October 28 entry near the close

Just locking in some partial profits, IWM swing target is still 120-121
Total = 30% Dec Shorts (SPY+QQQ) and 20% IWM Dec Calls