11:30AM AAPL + SPY Technicals Review

AAPL

AAPL consolidated all day, isn't surprising for a friday and pretty much what we expected based on indecisive indicators. However, this time it closed at an all time highs, therefore it is a significant achievement. Previously I've said that for Monday, AAPL should be allowed to finally have fun/run (non consolidation day). It would not surprise me if we divert from following SPY, since SPY is short-term overbought; 60min RSI is 76+, which means an immediate pullback on Monday is a possibility.

AAPL is likely to do a gap up and go. When AAPL closes at resistance and in an intermediate uptrend, it suggests a high percentage chance for a gap and go. It would be a higher percentage if the overall market were in the same position. In this case, SPY is overbought so not as high. (If somehow we have a big gap down then look to see if it holds the uptrend channel lines.)

*Gap and go, in this case means gap up and dip to 5min 20EMA and rocket up or just slowly grind up all day long.

SPY

Not much to say about SPY really, it went according to plan; small up and down for the entire day. It is overbought now on 60min chart, but not at pure extremes yet. (60min chart RSI 80 or above would be the extreme overbought condition). Immediate pullback on Monday has chances, the latest by Tuesday if Monday is another flat day like Friday.

 

Here's what we said on Thursday: The Sept Monthly 130 Puts, we will probably have to take the loss on Sept 10 or 11th, have to adjust to market dynamics. SPXU shares will keep for swing. 

That is still the plan for now and we will adjust accordingly. 

-Red Apple

9:55AM AAPL + SPY Technicals Update

AAPL

Looks like another consolidation day, another day off then.

SPY

Consolidation with bias up as expected, I think we're gonna just go small up and down today

-Red Apple

4:55PM Sept 6 AAPL + SPY Technicals Review

AAPL

Looks like I was correct, 675 to 680 was a much higher risk than the previous trade of 675 to 670. This time it took several hours to even reach a HOD of 678.25. Fortunately, I skipped another boring consolidation day.

 SPY

Fridays are usually continuation pattern of the current week's trend, so don't expect any significant pullback yet. Have to wait at least till Sept 10th or 11th. Hourly RSI and MACD are approaching to extreme levels, have to stay cautious of an imminent overbought pullback.
 
The Sept Monthly 130 Puts, we will probably have to take the loss on Sept 10 or 11th, have to adjust to market dynamics. SPXU shares will keep for swing.

-Red Apple

10:31AM SPY + AAPL Technicals

Entry

Last half of SPXU @ 40.05

Portfolio

September Monthly 130 Puts @ 0.68 (Average cost)

SPXU @ 40.90 Average [(40.05+41.75)/2]

 SPY formed negative divergence on daily and 60min charts and at overbought levels (not extreme yet) on 60min. Viewing this as last push still, will adjust accordingly when time is right


AAPL

 Could play 675 to 680, but the risk is much higher than the short swing trade I executed on Tuesday and profited (675 to 670)  on Wednesday. At the moment, indicators are still showing a consolidation phase so it is best to stay away

-Red Apple

5:11PM Sept 5 Review + Tomorrow's Market

Here's a small lesson/review on why I covered at 670.9 earlier today and managed to avoid a boring market.

 Channel support is why I covered in the morning and avoided the boring consolidation day

5min chart. See the slight break of channel line? It's a bear trap, next chart for explanation.

A slight break of an important channel support along with low RSI and bullish divergence on 1min chart showcases the requirements of a bear trap so I figured a rebound was imminent. It's all about vs reward, by covering at 670.9, I managed to avoid the rest of the flat day.

Tomorrow

Market (SPY + AAPL) should consolidate for the first half of the day 9:30-12:30, then if we get lucky we shall see some real direction.

-Red Apple

11:05AM AAPL Profit Exit

Exit

Covered @ 670.9

Profit

$4.2 per share

 I'm done for today, too boring don't want to waste time.

-Red Apple

9:44PM Limit Order Profit

Exit

Limit Covering AAPL @ 670.55

Since we did not short a lot of shares, we will only do this in one batch instead of 1/2 like other times

-Red Apple

3:54PM AAPL Short Triggered

Position Executed

Short AAPL Shares @ 675.10

This is just a quick small play, no biggie

-Red Apple

2:42PM AAPL Shorting Shares

 We're here, close to my 674.8 area

Entry

Limit short AAPL @ 675.10

-Red Apple

10:14AM AAPL + SPY Update

Consolidation day. SPY short positions already in place, AAPL can't do much with 674.8 as the next short term aggressive short area.

Taking day off, will be back if SPXU hits high.

 

-Red Apple

12:12PM AAPL Stock Entry Price Plan

Plan

1/3 of portfolio cash
AAPL stock limit order @ $655.55 for the day

Limit order for the day, I am gone until Tuesday. If it fills, great. If not, no biggie.

-Red Apple

11:14AM Quick Update AAPL + SPY, Too Fast Too Furious

AAPL doing good, after the signal. 

Should re-test 663-665 to form a more solid set-up.

SPY

TFTF, Too furious Too furious, often these set-ups don't end well.

10:38AM AAPL/Apple Technical Update

Bearish continuation as anticipated, need to wait for a solid confirmation to deem this as a buyable bottom. Plus it's a long week and Fed day, most likely won't execute a new trade until Tuesday.

AAPL 60min 100SMA considered to be filled

Awaiting signals/confirmations to indicate a solid bottom, or else this is just a temporary bottom

-Red Apple

2:43PM Apple/AAPL Technical Update

AAPL hit our $663-665 area, but this is merely just a buyable scalp down and not a hugely oversold condition. 60min RSI is currently 37 with RSI-14 settings.

660 would be the next area of support if we end below 666 today for tomorrow's bearish continuation.

Want to go for bigger meat instead of this 663.5->669 small scalp. Sitting on hands, staying calm

-Red Apple

1:28PM SPY Weeklies

Exit

$0.37, 141 SPY calls

Loss

- 2 cents per contract [-5%]

Plan didn't work out, and I don't like the short-term indicators right now, theta would kill these options if SPY goes flat in the afternoon. The loss isn't bad considering if we had chased at 0.42, we would be in a very different situation right now. Will need to stick with higher probability set ups in the next few trades to not go red in portfolio.

Most likely won't trade weeklies tomorrow because of Bernanke speech at 10AM, and will hold onto existing Sept SPY Puts and SPXU shares, still feeling unfortunate that last batch at 40.05 didn't fill.


-Red Apple

1:01PM AAPL + SPY Update

AAPL still bearish, 665-663 should hit and possibly more. Take a look at 60min MACD along with support lines

SPY, most likely to 140.80 first then see what happens

-Red Apple

10:10AM SPY Calls Filled

Entry

SPY August 31 141 calls @ .39

Plan

Bought a few more than usual. Looking for a minimum of +50% gain and 100% if momentum comes alive

These kinds of trades have high success rates due to the limitation of the downside given our current circumstances

-Red Apple

9:56AM Quick Update SPY + AAPL

Lowballing the 141 calls right now @ 0.39, a quick rebound looks inevitable. Will adjust accordingly

For AAPL, I don't see solid support until 663-665 which is where 60min MACD should curve along with significant support lines for price there

-Red Apple

12:00PM Quick Update AAPL + SPY

Not much different than yesterday, market still in consolidation mode and the bearish bias for this morning was accomplished now we shall see if we get any true movement in the afternoon

60min MACD shows limited action for both AAPL and SPY at the moment

Not here again this afternoon, so I may post a review tonight

 AAPL, short-term bullish above green triangle support

SPY, stuck in 141-142 consolidation mode

-Red Apple

6:20PM Quick Review SPY + AAPL

Looks like I was correct, SPY had a consolidation day. AAPL didn't move either. We did the right thing at the time by taking the loss since the OTM calls became unworthy to hold through due price flatness and theta shaving off. We will look for another worthy opportunity to strike again

Tomorrow morning for SPY is bearish bias based on 60min's MACD (12-26-9 settings) weakness, it is also on the zero line. Which means that if it does not have a big gap for either side, we would likely shake/consolidate for the morning and then the real movement will begin after lunch; 12:30PM

AAPL

Not much to say for AAPL, it is still short-term bullish when above the green triangle trend line support

-Red Apple

10:45AM AAPL Update + Exit

Exit

AAPL August 31 Weekly Calls @ 4.00

Loss

$2.6 per contract [-39%]

We wanted to take half off and limit stop the rest but we decided not to because we are almost 2 strikes OTM so the circumstances say we should take the loss entirely and wait for the next opportunity.

Not here for the rest of the day, will post a review tonight.

SPY

SPY, nothing to say, still looks like a consolidation day

-Red Apple

3:37PM Ideal Closing Price Area

Apple still looks like a gap up scenario, condition being nothing decisively lower than 673.54 which is the LOD

Chart below shows the ideal closing price area for Apple

Ascending triangle pattern

-Red Apple

1:50PM Quick Update with Chart

AAPL

Labeled support, not much to say. Overall, bullish chart, and looks like setting up for a gap up scenario if my predictions are right
QOTD; The trend is your friend

-Red Apple

12:45 Apple 680 Weekly Options Entry Execution

Entry

AAPL Weekly 680 Calls @ 6.6

-Red Apple

12:28 Apple 680 Weekly Options Entry Plan

Plan

Bidding the AAPL August 31 680 Weekly Calls at 6.00-6.05

+50% minimum target for these weeklies upside potential

Will post entry once it has been filled

(Waiting for SPY confirmation on the short term uptrend if in sync or not)

-Red Apple

10:10AM AAPL Stop Loss Cover

Exit

Covered AAPL short stock @ 674

Loss

$5.95 per share

New Plan

Since the downside dream did not come true, thinking if we should buy some 680 weeklies for this second leg up


-Red Apple

11:15AM Quick Day Trade Set Up Review

AAPL+SPY Reversal Set Up Review for this morning

Done for today, will be back on Monday.

10:10AM AAPL Lottery Exit

Exit

AAPL August 25 655 Weekly Puts @1.2



 Loss

$1.8 per contract [-60%]

  
 No Regret

Remember when we entered these weekly puts, it was a lottery side bet, and we said it was an all or nothing bet, extremely risky. We were prepared to lose it all, so it's okay. We keep our lottery bets very small with the house money we made.

 (http://aapltechnicals.blogspot.ca/2012/08/210pm-aapl-side-bet-important.html)

 Portfolio

September Monthly 130 Puts @ 0.68 (Average cost)

SPXU @ 41.75

Shorted AAPL common stock @ 668.05

Maintain the plan for these swing shorts, will adjust accordingly to market dynamics

-Red Apple

4:05PM AAPL Bear Porn Dream + Next Plan

Here is the bear porn dream for tomorrow, 648 first step, 640 second step.

AAPL lotteries have decayed to about $1 per contract from $3. 

The swing short on AAPL commons is doing well though


 Next Plan

We will plan whether or not to enter long calls if we get back to the 640 channel since the 600->675 rally was large, a second leg up is likely, the requirement being the pullback cannot exceed 640 decisively.

-Red Apple

12:40PM AAPL Quick Update

Let's see if AAPL $650-652 comes true this afternoon
I love lotteries!!

-Feeling Lucky Red Apple