No Man’s Land
Today’s session did not disappoint us; it was the expected range bound shakefest for the entire day. Before the day session opened, our hourly extreme overbought signal was confirmed at 7AM and the market rolled over by 10 points in the first hour of the day session. However, the bears could not break under the 1HR 20EMA decisively and it was subsequently sticksaved by the bulls. This led to a higher high intraday breakout towards the major resistance confluence of the 2065-2067 area.
By lunch time, the bulls only made it to a high of 2063.5 with two 15min top wicks followed by a bear bar closing below the 8EMA. That was our first signal of bears taking the ball back and quickly afterwards the hourly extreme overbought signal was confirmed again. The shakefest continued for another two hours as lower highs developed on the 15minute chart. Then, the largest 15min bear engulfing bar appeared closed at 2:30PM. This finally confirmed the bear intraday immediate target of 2045-2040 which could extend to 2035. However, the day’s LOD of 2041.50 was sticksaved at the 38.2% fib retracement level and ended as a doji. Nonetheless, it was an exquisite performance by both sides to execute this shakefest in an orderly fashion.
What’s next?
Daily closed at 2049.75 as a spinning top/doji bar. Price is still below daily 8EMA, 20EMA and 200SMA. Tomorrow is a Fed day and also the turn date of the monthly options expiration week which means it shall reveal the true direction of this week’s trend by tomorrow’s close. The market is currently in no man’s land as price is stuck between the 61.8% and 38.2% fibonacci retracement. (2067.8 vs 2041.33)
The immediate targets are still back to 2035-2037 and 2025 as long as price stays below 2058. The caveat is that these are not high probability targets compared to what we usually provide since this is still a shakefest in between support and resistance.
Tomorrow’s day trading game plan
Same plan as the previous night, going to trade smaller size to protect profits and minimize losses until we’re out of the no man’s land. Need to hear a helmet from all this shaking, safety first.
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The daily bear train setup context and swing trade re-short setup
potentialRemember the context of the daily bear train rejection of 100+ points from the high at 2110.25 to 1998.5 low, swing bears are going to be re-shorting here from 2045 to 2068. If the bears let the bulls get back above above 61.8% fib retracement then this bear train would be deemed too weak and something else is playing out. If the bears are going to get a daily bear train Leg 2 down, then they must show a strong rejection from 2045-2068. This week is very important as it will very likely determine how the intermediate term swing perspective roadmap plays out.
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FWIW, the swing futures account still has trailing shorts
from 2058-2060 with a stop at 2058.
