AAPL + SPY

AAPL - Tried to gun for $465 in the morning, only made a higher high @ $462.4. Managed to closed above $455, but below 20EMA 60min. Overall, just a consolidation pattern, not much changed. For bigger meat, we have to wait for the next high probability trade; patience pays off.

Next trendline support level is 450 if 455 breaks.

SPY - Temporary top, needs continuation tomorrow for confirmation or else it's merely just a consolidation for higher up.

AAPL

Not able to reach 465 highs, but closed nicely above support and underneath resistance. Gap up setup again. [60/40 chances, lower than yesterday]

As long as we're above 455 (or 20EMA 60min), we are still gunning for 465.

Stay alert for SPY top tomorrow.

AAPL Target Reached

AAPL target has been reached. First time above 20EMA on 60min chart.

If above 20EMA 60min, it is gunng for 465.73.

 

AAPL Temporary Bottom Part 3

 Close, but no cigar. AAPL only reached an intraday high of 453.21, but the chart has a gap up pattern setup for tomorrow. [Around 70/30 chances, SPY being risk]. Stock has to reach 455 tomorrow or the chances to return to the bottom channel at 440~ is high. Note, as long as we're above 446, we are gunning for 455. Giving it benefit of the doubt. This week looks interesting.

AAPL Temporary Bottom Part 2

 AAPL gapped down and formed immediate temporary bottom just as expected. The capitulation rebound is doing well, but it cannot fail this time unlike Friday's try. We must make it to 455 today. A pause at 449-450 was expected. Be careful if pullback breaks below 444.20 decisively, then that could hinder the second leg's chances to 455.

AAPL Temporary Bottom

The capitulation rebound failed on Friday since it did not get back to $455. The hourly signals on AAPL indicate that even if the stock gaps down on Monday, the temporary bottom would be formed and an immediate bounce would occur intraday. Thus, it will be the second try of a capitulation reversal. The major risk is that SPY has topped, which would hinder AAPL's reversal performance and would keep it punished at extreme oversold levels. Wait for price confirmation for longer term trades.

I rather choose a small gap down (to ensure the second time at extreme oversold) than to open flat and shake for a day.

AAPL Opportunities Continued

So far so good, truth bouncing.

Maximum overshoot line playing out well.

AAPL Opportunities Continued

Moment of truth, 

we are awfully close to my overshoot area 435-440

AAPL Opportunities Continued

Price is very weak. Fridays are typically continuation days, no capitulation rebound yet. Also,  the Bollinger Bands is expanding, so it's gonna take a few days to form a base unless we can get an intraday capitulation rebound. Price is still sitting above a converge of support lines.

Next support is 435, which is the maximum overshoot

AAPL Opportunities

Trust price only, wait for confirmation and look to scale in at major supports. This is a huge opportunity for bulls to get into mid term positions [40 - 80 trading days ]

Current bias is AAPL opening at 470-475. If capitulation is correct, then it should retest 485 in a no time. If not;

Major supports are 

475 (now turned resistance)

455(January 2012 gap up base)

 435 (maximum overshoot)