Monday, November 2, 2015

Nov 2 E-mini S&P 500 Futures: Keep It Simple Stupid Series



The gifts of a bull train

Today’s session really started with Sunday night’s hourly extreme oversold signal that provided us with a great risk 3 points for 10 long setup that we entered at 2066.00. It felt pretty great waking up and realizing your overnight set and forget trade worked out perfectly as it filled the profit limit order at 2076.00.  When the day session opened, we tried for a cute short at 2078 for the risk 4 for 10 setup at the 1HR 50SMA resistance. The bull train quickly obliterated our stop at 2082 and it became clear when it went above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of Friday’s high vs Sunday’s low that bears were too weak and lost their battle. We then proceeded to buy every dip as the entire day session was merely just a 5minute 8EMA and 20EMA bull train re-entries scalp long as shown in the “tutorial” post around lunch time. Subsequently, the market fulfilled the immediate targets of 2089.50 and 2100. Then, minutes before the close, we shorted at 2099 for the risk 3 for 10 setup based on our extreme hourly overbought signal and that the secondary immediate target has been fulfilled. The 
trade worked out half decent as it did not get the full 10 points down.

What’s next?

Daily closed at 2093.25, this is the 8th consecutive session above the daily 200SMA. It was a bullish engulfing candle similar to the October 22 session.
This is quite hilarious and fascinating because October 21 and October 30 both gave the bears false hope with the daily bearish engulfing candle setup just to sticksave at daily 8EMA and squeeze on next day.

Two immediate targets have been fulfilled; the last immediate target still remains at 2107.

Recall the intermediate targets that we mentioned from a couple nights ago. They are still valid; in the case of a bull acceleration breakout. The intermediate targets are 2120 and 2134.
(There’s a difference between immediate targets and intermediate targets. Immediate targets are the high probability targets that we provide with a high win rate since the inception of these updates. Treat intermediate targets as a longer term roadmap in mind.)

For short-term bears: Break below 2065, then immediate targets are 2055, 2050, 2040 and 2030.

Plan for tomorrow: Being cautious of a potential rangebound shakefest/consolidation day based on price channel. We're still trading smaller position sizes this week for the time being.

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Our Swing Position
  • Added 10% IWM Dec ITM Calls
Total = 30% Dec Shorts (SPY+QQQ) and 20% IWM Dec Calls

To reiterate: we are not great swing traders; this is a long learning process. Our swing account represents only 20% of total trading dollars and the day trading account represents the other 80%. For example, if the day trading account is 800K USD, swing account is 200K USD.