First Target Fulfilled
Today’s session may be very boring to some, but it was yet another
fairly simple and straight forward with great risk vs. reward setups just like
yesterday. Before the day session had opened, the market formed a 15minute
double bottom at 2073.25. This made our
trading day very easy as we used 2073.00 as a hard stop for all our BTFD day
trades. At the day session open, we gave a word of caution to be careful of a
consolidation day until late afternoon. That was pretty much what the market
did as every dip was bought intraday at the 1HR 20EMA bull train support and it
stopped at the 2083-2084.50 resistances. At the end of the day, it finally
broke above the range. Overall, our day trading account managed to over perform
the day session’s range of 11 points by just a hair.
What’s next?
Tomorrow is the
monthly closing.
Daily closed at 2084.75, this is the 6th
consecutive close above the daily 200SMA. Also, it was a small straight
continuation of the prior day’s breakout bull bar.
As I’m writing this, ES hit a high of 2088.5 which means we
consider the 2089.50 target to be fulfilled. As previously stated, our margin
of error is 2 points for ES targets.
The support for bulls to hold has now been upgraded from
2050 to 2065.
As long as the bull
train remains above 2065, the immediate targets are 2100 and 2107.
In the case of bull acceleration breakout above the trend
line resistance, we now have intermediate targets at 2120 and 2134.
For bears: Break
below 2065, then immediate targets are 2055, 2050, 2040 and 2030
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The Daily Extreme
Overbought Signal
Not much has changed here, still marching towards new high
vs. the historic peaks. As mentioned previously, price is king and the signals
are just setup potentials. ES needs to trigger below 2050 for this to be
confirmed. Having such a euphoric high could provide a fast and furious breakdown when the bears pounce onto the
battlefield.
Roadmap and thoughts:
Price has now closed above the 78.6% fibonacci retracement
level. Currently, this leads us to believe that the 100% full retracement at
2134 becomes very likely and will eventually be fulfilled. The key issue with
this is that we cannot predict if it does this within 20 sessions, or get a dip
back to 2030 first then go for 2134, or it ultimately fails. This is just a
very general roadmap/thought to be kept in the back of our minds.
Remember, the KISS
series focuses on high probability immediate targets with our approach of the
market level by level, hence the high win rate.
The first try at Daily 20EMA is a BTFD setup
Even if bears manage to reverse next week or within these two weeks;
daily bulls have a first try BTFD setup at daily 20EMA setup just like how
first try hourly 20EMA was a BTFD setup during Friday’s day session. We count
this rally from the 1861 vs 1861.5 hourly bottom to 2065 as Leg 1. The bounce
has never had to retest the daily 20EMA yet, but retested the daily 8EMA 3
times and bounced off it. This means it has been a massive bull squeeze run
that the very first dip to 20EMA should sticksave. However, just because first
try BTFD at daily 20EMA is a great setup ,it does not mean it has to be a daily
chart scale bounce (50-100 points). It could just be an intraday 20-30 points
bounce then retest the daily 20EMA again if bears manage to have that much
conviction.
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Our Swing Position
- Added 10% Dec Monthly IWM Calls
- Total = 30% swing shorts, 10% swing longs
We will not add anymore swing shorts until ES triggers below
2050.00
To reiterate: we are not great swing traders; this is a long learning process. Our swing account represents only 20% of
total trading dollars and the day trading account represents the other 80%. For
example, if the day trading account is 800K USD, swing account is 200K USD.
