Tuesday, July 31, 2012

12:30PM Quick Technical Analysis Update



Portfolio Update:
Entries:
SPXU @ 43.8
AAPL August 20, 600 Strike Puts @ 9.2
SPY Sept Quarterly 125 Strike Puts @ 0.91

  • SPXU shares scaled in yesterday at 43.8, will scale in the last half if >=45 in the next few sessions or <=43.8 again. Note, this is a very high probability and a high confidence trade based on overbought levels and MAJOR resistances)

  • AAPL scaled  in Monthly August 20 600 puts (Note, this trade has  a lower probability trade compared to the previous August 3 weekly 580 calls) 

  •  SPY puts were bought last Friday as discussed in skype group

Definition, scale in means 1/3 or 1/2 of the position planned to execute, therefore if you want 10 puts altogether, first scale in should be 3 or 5 contracts.


AAPL

AAPL is slightly overbought right now on 60min at roughly 70rsi using RSI-14 settings, not extreme yet. 



SPX/SPY




 It doesn't really matter if we get QE3 or not, because if we do, it pops up to an EXTREME overbought condition. Then, you scale in the latter half and you'll make it back very fast.Whereas, if no QE3, tank and you're still 1/2 in and you're making dough.This trade is 90% now. Concise, SPY if more up, scale in fully with the other half or 1/3.
If down, keep target in mind, 2x minimal, 2.5x internal target.

SPXU






SPXU above 45 would be a buy confirmation signal, it also is the 60min 20EMA spot.
<43.8 to scale in>45 for confirmation, if you want.
>45= we are going to 50 most likely.

-Red Apple