Make or Break
Today’s session was very volatile with the intraday
roundtrip being roughly 90 points. The overnight setup was another 1HR 20EMA
bear rejection train. At the day session open, the market quickly broke below
yesterday’s low 2050.25 and there were major supports at that area with the Dec
4 low at 2046.75 and daily 50SMA of 2050. This provided the intraday bulls with
an initial risk 3-5 points for 10 points
setup. When the large bull hourly candle closed at 10AM that eclipsed the
previous 6 hours and above the 20EMA it provided chase targets to 2073 and
2080.
It did not take long
for the bulls to reach the 1HR 200SMA 2080 target. However, bears immediately stepped
in and they had a great risk vs. reward trade setup with the short at the 1HR
200SMA resistance vs. yesterday’s high of 2081.50 as a stop. By 1PM, the hourly
candle closed as a large bear that wiped out 78.6% of the morning rally. This
meant that it was a bull trap rejection along with intraday double top formation,
this had a potential flush setup to the 2025 daily 100SMA target. When the
market broke the 2049.75 intraday low, it quickly flushed to 2034.25 and found
temp bottom. At 2PM, our hourly extreme oversold signal was confirmed and it
had a target back to the 1HR 20EMA 2055 level for the deadcat bounce.
What’s next?
Daily closed at 2045.25, this is below 50SMA, 200SMA and the
triangle.
The immediate target
is 2025 for the bear continuation pattern as long as price remains below 2060.
However, the context is that the weekly chart still has the “hold half and go”
setup from Nov 16. This means it is a very important battle for both sides
here. If bulls are unable to sticksave, then this opens up the possibility of
retesting the 1993-2000 support on the weekly chart. Bears must have a straight
continuation down tomorrow to eliminate this possibility as today’s candle
closed as a top and bottom wick.
For bulls: The 61.8% retracement of today’s high vs. low is
at 2062.37 which means that if bulls are able to sustain above 2062 then this
is just a rangebound shakefest back inside the triangle again. The range high resistance
is now 2075 and 2080 if the bears failed their continuation setup.
How does Unique reset
after making a few rookie mistakes from today/this week?
Fairly straightforward tactic, I simply re-trade the charts from
the past few days to now as it were live. Then, focus on my usual optimal
entries using the standard risk 3-5 for 7-10 points for scalps and standard risk
5-10 for 20-30 for swings. Then, I compare and contrast my real trades vs. my
re-trades in order to determine what went wrong. Also, I take a look in my
trading journals to see what I was anticipating at a particular time to check
if mistakes were made in my target projections and/or how I was feeling
emotionally. At the end of the day, trading is a performance based occupation and
in order to maintain a peak performance it requires constant conditioning. My
motto has always been money talks and BS walks.
