The Winner?
Today’s session pretty much went as expected according
to the weekend update’s white line projection. The regular “A Tier” hourly
extreme oversold signal confirmed at 10PM Sunday night that gave us a quick
10-20 point target to 2010-2020. When we woke up we realized the market made an
overnight high of 2013.75 which fulfilled the signal’s target.
Before the day session opened, we noted that
there’s a high probability it’s going to be an inside day. During the open, the
market started with two consecutive hourly top wick candles that closed on the
1HR 20EMA support trapping traders on both sides. Shortly after, the bears broke
2005 key level and rolled over to test the grey support area around 1998. Subsequently,
the hourly extreme oversold signal “A+ Tier” setup confirmed itself with targets
to 2035.75 and 2045.75. This meant that a 40-50 point bounce is likely in
the works as long as bulls hold above 1991. The next 3 hours was just a
snoozefest shaking inside a 10 point range. When it seemed like everybody fell
asleep, the final day session hourly candle closed as a massive bull bar that
eclipsed the previous 6 hours in gains. However, daily still closed below all
moving averages so this is still considered a deadcat bounce.
What’s next?
Daily closed at 2018 and it was an inside day. The bulls
currently have the ball and it’s up to them to score because there’s a very
clear double bottom/higher low setup that targets 2033-2035. This coincides
with the “A+ Tier” hourly extreme oversold signal targets of 2035.75 and
2045.75.
There is still no
clear winner as today was just an inside day. Bulls still need to retrace
above Friday’s high of 2029.75 and bears need a break below 1991 to continue
the bear train assault. However, our
bias remains the same which is the white line projection from the weekend
report. If the market is really following our white line projection, then
bulls must hold above 2010 in order to march towards 2035-2045. This means that
tomorrow/Wednesday “should” reveal the winner for the intermediate roadmap of
either Santa Claus Rally or the daily Double Top bear train. If nothing happens,
then a rangebound shake between 2020 vs 1995 becomes a real possibility.
Knowing and understanding your timeframes is extremely
important as we head towards next year. The weekly chart has a giant bull flag
setup and a minor double bottom sticksave. For bears they must absolutely break
below last week’s in order to keep the momentum alive for the bear train daily
double top setup to 61.8% fib at 1932 and 100% at 1892. The monthly chart still
favours bulls based on the large bull candle from October providing the market
with the “hold half and go” setup.
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This is the last KISS update for 2015 as I take a two week break
in order to rejuvenate and cherish the moments with family and friends. Admittedly,
I wasn’t able to end 2015 on a high note as December has almost always been a
tough month for me. Regardless, this year has been fun and intriguing along
with great prosperity. Wishing you all a very Merry Christmas and a wonderful
Happy New Year! May all your dreams and goals for the coming year be fulfilled.
