Daily
8EMA
Bear Train vs. Temporary Bottom Part 2
Today’s session started off with last night’s pullback to the
1841 and 1833 support area as expected by our projection chart. Then, the
overnight bulls the pullback and proceeded with the short-term relief rally. An
hour before the day session had opened; the market made a double top vs. the
Jan 20 high on the 15m chart. However, the bears were unable to break below the
overnight lows and the bulls sticksaved back to the highs when the day session
opened. This paved the way for the 1878.5
breakout level (Jan 20 high) that bulls were looking to squeeze to the
immediate target of 1890. However, we soon learned that the intraday bull train
quickly failed as it could not sustain above 1880 and moments later broke below
the trending 5m 20EMA. Overall, the session was just a shakefest as our plan from
last night was to trade small sizes. In
hindsight, that initial breakout of the 1876-1878.5 level was a great false
hope rally that trapped intraday bulls (including us) and the daily 8EMA bear
train once again proved their worth.
What’s next?
Daily closed at 1861.5 and it was a spinning top candle
showing indecisive action. This means that we are still expecting the shakefest
to continue as long as the market trades in the 1883.25 vs. 1836.25 range. Above
or below those levels, then the market should become much easier to trade and
whipsaw less.
There are no immediate targets or projections for tonight
because it’s just a shakefest and there’s no edge. Remember, this is still an
8EMA accelerated bear train, but the momentum of price is shifting with how bulls
managed to sticksave on Jan 20 off the 1804.25 vs 1800 major support level. The market is trying to change the daily bear
stance into a neutral to short-term bullish with this basing pattern.
Current Plan for tomorrow:
Same as last night, keep position sizes small as the
shakefest continues. When above 1883.25 or below 1836.25, then it should become
easier to trade by having an edge.
