7:15PM, Tipping Point

AAPL Two-Hour Chart as of 05/30/12

10:29AM, Cruel Market

(Red Apple) Perplexing market. Not good at all. Previous targets are now all invalid, breakout failed to hold. Be careful.

AAPL is still above support line though

2:14AM, AAPL & SPY Update

(Red Apple) May 29, 2012 started with a gap up which was a breakout on SPX and then it completed a throwback test and finished strong. It's a very clear bullish formation, and a very high % chance for green day tomorrow (a morning run up/gap up, not necessarily a green close though)

AAP will retest $580 on May 30, 2012 with huge congestion at 580-582.5, a downtrend line, horizontal resistances and support trendline. For now, insisting on a limited AAPL run up, meaning the next staircase step of 590->600 is unlikely to me at the moment. I need to see conviction first. $580 retest is at a 75% chance. The $580 area is a big resistance.

SPY broke out and held the throwback support of $132.8. Then finished strong indicating a continuation pattern which is bullish. For May 30, 2012 my SPY target is $134.5-> 135 - > 135.5. First target of $134.5 is official, the next two are just showing you the staircase resistances. 80% for $134.5.

Don't feel a need to post the charts for this analysis because it's a fairly simple breakout formation that everyone should know. For clarifications, ask me on skype.

-Red Apple

5:30PM, Upwave in a Downtrend?

(Green Apple) US markets are closed tomorrow, but here's an update on AAPL's weekly chart:

AAPL Weekly Chart - as of 05/27/12

4:20PM, Bullish Cross - 2H

(Green Apple)  Could it be?  Why, yes, it is . . . a bullish cross on AAPL's two-hour chart !  What does it mean?  Up or down from here? 


Compare the time around APR'12 with APR'11:

AAPL - Two Hour Charts - Bullish Crosses

Compare the current (top left) with two previous crosses:

AAPL - Two-Hour Charts - Bullish Crosses

6:00PM, Stuck in the Middle Again!



AAPL Two-Hour Chart as of 05/24/12

11:11AM, AAPL Update

(Red Apple) Quick update,

$580 target today, 70/30 chances. Yesterday's close line must hold.

-Red Apple

7:25PM, Are we there yet? F*CK YES !!!

(Green Apple)  About damn time !!!

AAPL Daily Chart as of 05/23/12

11:36AM, AAPL too fast, too furious

 

(Red Apple) My perspective is explained on the chart:

Please don't do anything stupid !

 

-Red Apple

3:55PM, $555 fulfilled

(Red Apple) AAPL will likely be in consolidation mode for tomorrow -- don't do anything stupid now.

Reversed 20 bucks today.  The pace is surprising, not the target. We were short-term overbought -- got punished as expected.

-Red Apple

1:39PM, Update

If you appreciate my blog, all I ask from you is an appropriate donation to Free the Children

http://www.freethechildren.com/donate/

Their financials: http://www.freethechildren.com/aboutus/financials/

If you are not from North America, please donate to the International Committee of the Red Cross

 http://www.icrc.org/eng/donations/index.jsp

(Red Apple) AAPL gap has been fulfilled. I am neutral on AAPL now, unofficial target of $555 for retest. 

60/40 chance.

SPY, I am maintaining my bullish target of $134.5 with $134.18 as 38.2% retracement level drawnfrom $141.66 as 100%.

 SPY target becomes invalid if today closes below $132.3

-Red Apple

4:31PM, Target has been reached

(Red Apple) AAPL $560 target has been reached faster than I anticipated.  This is not good because we went from one extreme condition to another.  Note 60-minute AAPL RSI closed at 66. If we gap up to 565 (max 568 top), I would suggest you enter AAPL May 25 550 or 555 Puts. June if you are more conservative. July if you are ultra conservative. Exit at 50% gain.

Easy week so far.  Good luck!

-Red Apple

Success! There's nothing better than a Perfect Monday Mojito

We have successfully profited again from the biggest casino in the world.

Congratulations and cheers!

11:53PM, Money talks, bullshit walks, buy the mother fucking dip

 (Red Apple) If you appreciate my blog, all I ask from you is an appropriate donation to Free the Children

http://www.freethechildren.com/donate/

Their financials: http://www.freethechildren.com/aboutus/financials/

If you are not from North America, please donate to the International Committee of the Red Cross

 http://www.icrc.org/eng/donations/index.jsp

            At this point, you may question me in regards to why that I am still so bullish and assertive on a reversal. Well, if you browse the daily charts of AAPL and SPX closely and look for incidents when RSI Wilder's (settings 14) is less than 20 RSI on both daily and hourly chart. The corollary is that it has served as a bottom indicator and an immediate reversal would be taken place. Please note, these extreme oversold conditions do not occur frequently and it is recommended to keep track of them.

 Although AAPL and SPX did not form a hammer candlestick on the daily chart like my anticipated contrivance, but that is alright. From what it looks like now, it is more likely that the upcoming Monday (May 21, 2012) would be an extreme volatile day for the market that shall have similar characteristics as of SPX on August 9, 2011. However, that may not be the case for AAPL, as it may have double bottomed, no confirmation though. SPX and AAPL have reversed at different times in the past, and it should be noted that this is still a possible scenario for Monday. Whatever happens on Monday, there must be a reversal. It doesn’t matter which scenario happens, either the capitulation bottom or straight rocket at 9:30. Just remember that these extreme oversold conditions do not occur frequently each year and it is imperative to play these reversals to their full potential.

If the capitulation occurs, RSI levels will reach an ultra extreme oversold condition on both daily and hourly on SPX, the past few incidents are huge short coverings resulting in a bullish hammer candlestick reversal. Now, you may be thinking about the old saying, "past performance does not guarantee future results". Bots play the game like this, you don't listen, your loss.

Admittedly, I am too lazy to screencap all the charts right now, so you do your own homework and  browse through AAPL and SPX charts to look for the aforementioned RSI levels and conditions.

AAPL will reverse to a minimum of $560 this week. (new price target since last week's call of 555->540->530)

Two words for you all,  

GO LONG 

(then take some profits every staircase up)

Buy when there’s blood on the streets. Be the leader, not the sheep.

 

 Don't ever be afraid

-Red Apple

1:00PM, AAPL Elliott Wave

(Green Apple)  I'm still a young grasshopper with this Elliott Wave stuff, but I do like it!  Check out how closely AAPL maps expected sentiment patterns . . .

AAPL Daily Chart - as of 5/20/12

Corey Rosenbloom's EW Cheat Sheet

4:00PM, Are we there yet? Maybe.

(Green Apple) AAPL is currently in an intermediate-term downtrend / consolidation period.  Downtrends, however, can contain upwaves.  Watch for potential countertrend retracement this week . . . (Expand this post for a second weekly chart.)

AAPL Weekly Chart with Fib Retracement Levels
as of 05/19/12

AAPL Weekly Chart with Corrective/Impulse Waves
as of 05/19/12

- Green Apple

12:30AM, AAPL & SPX bottoming and trade suggestions

(Red Apple) Calling for daily bottom for both AAPL and SPX tomorrow. 

Explanations are written on charts.

Ask me in skype group if you want me to clarify anything.

SCREAMING BUY :D

 

 Important strategies for entry tomorrow

Short term double strategy

   May 25 Long AAPL 540 calls

One month out straight long calls strategies

Conservative - Long June 22 AAPL 540 calls
Moderate - Long June 22 AAPL 560 calls
Aggressive - Long June 22 AAPL 580 calls


One month out spreads if you are afraid of time decay in straight calls 


AAPL June 550/555
AAPL June 560/565
AAPL June 565/570


Click on image link below for uncompressed images.

AAPL charts

http://i.imgur.com/8UuNt.png

http://i.imgur.com/RaFo5.png

SPX charts

http://i.imgur.com/Lr8l8.png

http://i.imgur.com/d2HPS.png

-Red Apple

10:16AM, AAPL analysis

Buy, buy and buy.

http://i.imgur.com/fdJfI.png

(click on link for those that have monitors less than 1920x1080 it's an uncompressed image) 

-Red Apple

4:46PM, AAPL analysis

Counting 540 target as completed. I no longer have confidence in my third target of $530 from staircase target chart. I see a bottom near here already.

 

http://i.imgur.com/8HdTB.png

(click on link for those that have monitors less than 1920x1080 it's an uncompressed image)

Reasoning for no confidence in $530. Oversold RSI, odds are not good for $530, most people that shorted took some profits by now.

 

 http://i.imgur.com/cZh6E.png

(click on link for those that have monitors less than 1920x1080 it's an uncompressed image)

-Red Apple
(fixed error image 1:28pm May 17)

10:42AM, AAPL analysis

Maintaining AAPL target unless it breaks above 560

Please see chart.

 

http://i.imgur.com/tbRgh.png

(Click on image to enlarge works too)

-Red Apple

2:50PM

AAPL obeying downtrend. Still maintaining staircase target from Sunday.

555->540->530

- Red Apple

AAPL + SPX

AAPL is still within channel, no breakdown

AAPL above support at the moment. Yellow channel is uptrend and purple channel is downtrend

SPX broke support of 1343, immediate low of 1336.61 now. Temporary bottom channel lines

-Red Apple

For Monday

It is imperative for everyone to look for swing trades to short AAPL/SPY on monday if it breaks below support decisively.  SPX is on the verge of the neckline breakdown with support at 1343, futures at 1339.25 and AAPL at 555.00 for retest. 

Could be a very big and adventurous week if lived up to its hype. Good luck.

-Red Apple