Private Mentorship Spots Available

I am now accepting enrolment of prospective students commencing in April 2016.

Please email me at AAPLAddiction@gmail.com for details on the private mentorship program. Do not forget to include a brief message stating your trading experience and desired goals.

-Unique

EWT Analyst Position

To those that emailed me and if anyone else is interested:

Here's the 10% discount sign-up link at https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/signup/unique

You get access to the trading room where I post intraday comments and the KISS reports. There's also a few other analysts that post in the main trading room with trade setups and road maps. It has a free 15-day trial with no credit card required for those experimenting. Good luck!

P.S. Currently, not accepting any more students for mentorship this quarter as I'm fully booked so you have to wait until mid 2016.

-Unique

A Temporary Goodbye

I joined EWT ( https://www.elliottwavetrader.net  ) as an analyst and the KISS reports and intraday comments will be posted there for the foreseeable future. Thank you for everyone's support and I'll see you there!

-Unique

E-mini S&P 500 Futures Weekend: Keep It Simple Stupid

The Intermediate Trend Battle

Friday’s session was fairly simple as the overnight session consolidated in a tighter range and we noted in the Thursday’s night report that price contraction is generally followed by price expansion which means a fast and furious breakout/breakdown. For the entire week, the setup was a massive feedback loop consisting of higher lows and the major resistance of 1907.5. A sustain break above that level would setup the squeeze and buyers chase the bull train

During the day session open, there was a 5min bull engulf setup forming that we noted two minutes before the open. This paved the way for the hourly candle to become an 8EMA bull train acceleration setup as the bulls had a straight continuation pattern to 1900. Then, it hit the major resistance of 1907.5 and broke above the week’s high 1910 quickly. The rest is history as it was just a simple breakout and go pattern that grinded the 5m 20EMA/15m 8EMA train up for rest of the day. By the end of the day, it fulfilled the smaller 100% measure move at 1930 target.

What’s next?

Daily closed at 1931.25 as a large bull bar above the daily 20EMA. Major resistances are located at 1940, 1947-1950 and 1960. The battle between the daily bullish reversal pattern from the Jan 20 temporary bottom vs. the established weekly bear train should be an interesting phenomenal this week.

The Weekly/Monthly Chart Perspective and Context

Recall, the market has been a trading range of 300-334 points for the past 3 years between 1800 and 2134 as we noted in a few of our weekend reports. Now, the market is trying to go back to the half way point which is located at 1967. This means that the overall context is a 3 year trading range vs. the established weekly bear train setup. The weekly bears are looking for a lower high/rejection at 8EMA to keep this train momentum alive.

The immediate target of the smaller measure move at 1930 from Friday has been fulfilled. The other measure at 1950 remains valid as long as 1HR 20EMA keeps trending.

The Hourly Extreme Overbought Signal

Currently, the signal is looking for a confirmation at around 1940-1950 for the potential quick dip of 20-30 points. Unfortunately, we won’t be here on Sunday night to confirm this in real-time as we have other obligations to tend to.

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In short, weekly bears looking for a rejection this week to keep the bear train alive and daily bulls looking to continue their short-term assault to the immediate target of 1950. It should be an exciting week for us as we approach this market level by level with high probability setups.

P.S. I wonder if “everyone” is still long-term (3months to 12months) bearish after last week’s action :)

E-mini S&P 500 Futures: Keep It Simple Stupid

The Week Long Tease

Today’s session was just a classic inside day; the first two hours of the day session already defined the range high vs. range low with the hourly candle wicks that aligned with the levels from yesterday. Remember, this entire week the market has basically been trading inside the daily shake zone levels of 1907.25 vs.1851.25 from the Tuesday KISS report levels. The market has consolidated and the hourly triangle range is getting tighter for the imminent breakout/breakdown. Overall, it was a pretty simple session as day traders had defined risk vs. reward scalps based on the levels we had provided intraday.

What’s next?

Daily closed at 1882 and it was a doji candle within yesterday’s range. Price contraction is generally followed by price expansion which means a fast and furious breakout/breakdown should be arriving very soon. Make no mistake; the market can continue this consolidation as long as it likes until the key levels such as 1907.5 or 1851.25 breaks decisively.

There are still no immediate targets or high probability projections as the market continue this shakefest. Our educated guess/bias remains the same, it favours short-term bulls as the chart pattern and structure of this temporary basing pattern suggests the daily 20EMA target to be hit.

Levels for breakout: break above 1900 with immediate follow through to 1907.50 opens up the immediate target to 1915 (daily 20EMA) and 1927.

Levels for breakdown: break below 1865 with immediate follow through to 1851 opens ups the immediate targets to 1837, 1820 and 1805.

Tomorrow is the weekly and monthly candle closing so it could be a wild ride as both sides duke it out. Last week’s candle was a bull hammer that was a sticksave from the multi-year major support and so far the bulls have failed to do a straight continuation to the upside. With the current failure from the bulls to do a straight continuation rally, it favours the accelerated weekly bear train in the coming weeks as long as major resistances such as 1920 and 1940 do not get decisively taken out.  Again, we’re looking forward to next couple weeks as the market gets out of this shake zone so we get some easy trending moves riding the train.

E-mini S&P 500 Futures: Keep It Simple Stupid

The Shakefest Continues

Today’s session was similar to any other Fed day where price gets tested at both the range high and range low. During the overnight session, the bulls defended the upper support and did not even let the bears retrace back to the 1875-1869 area as we thought it would before the blast off. When we woke up and saw the overnight price action, it gave us more confidence the market is going to hit ES hit daily 20EMA target today.

During the day session opening hour, the bears tried to retest the overnight low and attempt a breakdown but quickly failed as the bulls managed a nice 5m bull engulf candle.  We entered longs at 1886 with an initial target of 1894 and the bull train quickly took off as we had a target extension to 1920 which was a roughly 5 points under the daily 20EMA at the time. We trimmed and trailed while riding this accelerated 5m 8EMA bull train up. However, the bulls couldn’t sustain the 1907.5 breakout and got rejected at 1910 and turned back to 1900 really quickly. Remember, the 1907.5 level is the Jan 19, 2016 high that we discussed last night and bulls needed to power through that in order to get to the daily 20EMA.

Fast forward to the 2PM FOMC announcement, we had a micro double top rejection that bears needed follow through below 1885 for the flush setup vs. bulls needed to reclaim 1895 in order for them to have a chance for the daily 20EMA target. Once the 1885 support broke and bears continued their assault below the overnight low of 1878.75, it opened up the immediate targets of 1869, 1858 and 1852.

What’s next?

Daily closed at 1878 and the market is still inside the shakefest zone of 1907.5 vs. 1851.25. The daily context is still a temporary basing pattern with major resistance at 1907.5 and the 20EMA that’s grinding down.

The weekly bear train is waiting for the shorts re-entry at 1920-1940 or when the market breaks below 1851.25 with immediate follow through below 1836.25 to indicate that the swing bears are back in full force. You have to remember that the Jan 20 was just a temporary bottom as we discussed before and the higher timeframe context is still bearish. Until major resistances such as 1940 and 1950 get decisively taken out, this is still swing bears’ fight to lose.

The monthly candle closes in 2 days as well; swing bears may want the bulls to sticksave back to 1920-1940 and close there. The reason is because a large monthly large bottom wick candle is generally unsustainable so in February/March the bears may get the chance to retest the prior supports based on the lower highs pattern.

There are currently no immediate targets or high probability projections. However, our best educated guess/bias favours short-term bulls as they try to retest the resistances and breakout based on the higher lows triangle setup. Our general roadmap is 1880->1920~ (daily 20EMA) ->1870 and it’s subject to change based on the overnight action. Remember, the market is just fluctuating from range high vs. range low defined by our “shake zone” levels. We’re looking forward to next couple weeks as the market gets out of this shake zone so we get some easy trending moves riding the train.

E-mini S&P 500 Futures: Keep It Simple Stupid

The Pending Breakout Setup*

Today’s session was a bit surprising and tough to trade even though we pretty much nailed the general road map from last night’s report. The overnight session was just an accelerated 1HR 8EMA bear train that hit the 1860 and 1850 targets from the extreme overbought “A+ Tier” signal. Remember, we use two points as our margin of error so we considered the 1851.25 low as fulfillment.  

At 4:00AM, the 30min candle was bull engulf along with the hourly candle being a doji. This provided the bulls with the sticksave setup of bouncing at least 25 points bounce as anticipated.  The bulls fulfilled that criteria but exceeded expectations because the bounce was V-shaped and did not even need a solid pullback .  At the day session open, we thought it was going to pullback a little first based on major resistance line ahead before it blasts off. The bull train did not care and immediately ran our scalp short stops, then rode the 8EMA train to 1892 and 1899 resistances in a timely manner. Overall, the regular trading hours were tough for traders if they didn’t buy within the first 30mins of open since most of the “easy money” occurred during the afterhours session.

What’s next?

Daily closed at 1888 as it closed a hair above 8EMA. The daily context is still a temporary basing pattern with the range being 1850 vs. 1904.25. It’s a shakefest between the range high and low but it’s large enough to make decent dough trading it.

Current Projections/Road map:

The overnight pullback targets 1875.5-1869.7 area which is the 50%-61.8% fib retracement area. Assuming this key zone holds, we expect a breakout tomorrow above 1899.5 with follow through above 1907.5 to get to the daily 20EMA target based on the current hourly and daily pattern. However, at this point this setup is *not a high probability setup compared to what we normally discuss in the KISS reports. This is due to fact that tomorrow is a FOMC/Fed day and we currently do not have a clear edge.

The alternative scenario is that 50%-61.8% fib retracement area does not hold and the market retests the previous night’s low of 1851.25. If that level breaks decisively, then it immediately opens up 1844, 1837 and 1830 as possible bear extension target

Current Plan For Tomorrow:

Limit position sizes, or stay in cash because it’s usually just a shakefest before the 2PM announcement. Then, the market does the initial move, the false move and the trending move to close the day. No edge, no trade.